Picture for Week Three Summary - COVID & NZ Energy sector

Week Three Summary - COVID & NZ Energy sector

We are now two weeks into our Level 4 lockdown, with much of the country getting into the swing of our new normal. Energy demand seems to be stabilising at 10 to 18% below our typical consumption, with much of the larger C&I consumers now completing their shutdowns (excluding Tiwai Point). There has been some interesting evening spikes, which are likely to be due to falling temperatures.

The following blog continues on from our first two summaries, outlining some of the key changes to the energy sector since the 25th of March 2020.


In the past week, demand has settled, being on average between 10 & 18% below our typical energy demand for this time of year. In the last week, we have noted some evening spikes, which are likely linked to the falling temperatures as a cold front moves up the country.

As noted last week, the morning peak is still kicking in later in the day much of the population working from home and no longer commuting. The evening peaks and drop offs are still occuring at similar times, with the demand spikes likely to be linked to heating.

The following graph looks at NZ’s total demand for every Wednesday since the 11th of March. You will notice in the last two weeks, the demand profile has become more consistent, highlighting the new normal for NZ whilst we remain in lockdown.

Figure 1 - Total demand for NZ from the 11th of March 2020 to the 8th of April 2020.
Figure 2 - Total demand for NZ since the start of March 2020. Notable drop towards the end of March, with some evening spikes in April as temperatures drop.
Figure 3 - Comparison between 2019 and 2020. This is a raw comparison with no temperature compensation.


Wholesale price trends

Figure 4 - Wholesale price trends since 12th of March.
Figure 5 - Wholesale price trends over the last 7 days. Starting to see prices sit around an average of $40.

Forward price curves

Figure 6 - Settlement prices at Otahuhu short dated.
Figure 7 - Settlement prices at Benmore short dated.


Thanks to http://www.energynews.co.nz/ for keeping us all updated.

Graphs sourced from https://www.emi.ea.govt.nz/

Daily energy reports from https://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/


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